Incollo una interessante analisi di rugbyrugby.com
For both sides this is a match of earnest endeavour. Nobody likes to be last. Apart from the natural determination to win a match and the desire to avoid coming last, both sides have that which shouldn make for encouragement.
Italy have the encouragement of the far more expansive game that they are now playing. Previously their achievements on the rugby field were largely the strong, well-organised set pieces with little else besides the boot of a flyhalf to score them points. Now they have scored tries, only four in the Six Nations but that is four times as many as Scotland and only one fewer than England. They could in fact have had another two had Gonzalo Canale's hands not let his side down with the try-line at his mercy.
Not only has Nick Mallett given them the confidence to play wide, but he has also picked an
increasingly Italian-born side. The whole of Italy is pleased. Odd, for a side that has lost all four matches up till now. But then they had regularly told Mallett that he was in bocca di lupo (in the mouth of a wolf).
Scotland have the enormous boost of their surprising, well-deserved victory over England in the wet at Murrayfield last week. They were able to hurl the Sassenach back over Hadrian's Wall tae think again, and even the Scottish Parliament delighted in the victory and having their photo taken with the Calcutta Cup. They will be feeling very, very good.
Too good? Perhaps. England resurrected their Six Nations with a win over France in Paris, only to fall flat in Edinburgh. Will Scotland's euphoria be deflated in Rome? Will the warmth of the Eternal City be too seductive for the men from Caledonia stern and wild?
Italy have, in theory, an easier task in avoiding bottom spot than France have in winning top spot. France must beat Wales by 20 points. Italy must beat Scotland by ten points.
So there is much honour to play for.
Getting possession should be fairly even unless Italy start kicking the ball away, which is unlikely with Andrea Masi to guide them and Mallett to chide them.
So far in the Six Nations the Italian backs have looked sharper, able to produce overlaps against the best defences, but then they have played in better weather.
The problem for Italy will be the link between the forwards and the backs - clumsy Simon Picone at scrumhalf who takes so long to clear the ball. Mike Blair and his pack could be putting pressure on Picone. Last year Italy had two top scrumhalves in Paul Griffin and iconic Alessandro Troncon. The game could be won and lost at scrumhalf.
If the game needs to be won and lost by the boot, Scotland have the upper hand with metronomic Chris Paterson and his incredible record of accuracy - the best in the world. Kicking out of hand Scotland are the ones with much greater distance.
Scotland would win the battle of the boot.
For Scotland the late withdrawal of big Nikki Walker is not a good idea, especially as they are without the Lamont brothers and playing Simon Webster at centre and Chris Paterson at flyhalf.
Discipline could also count. Both sides have locks prone to penalty - Marco Bortolami of Italy and Nathan Hines of Scotland.
Players to Watch: Quicksilver fullback
Andrea Marcato (Italy) and energetic scrumhalf
Mike Blair (Scotland), Scotland's captain. But more than anybody else
Sergio Parisse (Italy), who has been the outstanding No.8 in the Six Nations championship.
Leonardo Ghiraldini is another Italian forward who has caught the eye. New to the Six Nations, the sturdy hooker has been accurate in his basic works and outside of set pieces has shown the skill and speed that made him a Sevens player.
Head to Head:
Gonzalo Canale (Italy) against
Simon Webster (Scotland) at outside centre. Both have attacking flair.
Recent results:
2007: Scotland won 18-16 in St Etienne
2007: Italy won 37-17 at Murrayfield,
2006: Scotland won 13-10 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2005: Scotland won 18-10 at Murrayfield,
2004: Italy won 20-14 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2003: Scotland won 47-15 at Murrayfield,
2003: Scotland won 33-25 at Murrayfield,
2002: Scotland won 29-12 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
2001: Scotland won 23-19 at Murrayfield,
2000: Italy won 34-20 at Stadio Flaminio, Rome
1999: Scotland won 30-12 at Murrayfield,
1998: Italy won 25-21 in Treviso
1996: Scotland won 29-22 at Murrayfield,
Prediction: Matches between Italy and Scotland have been high-scoring affairs. With Italy's new expansive game plan and Chris Paterson's unerring boot it could be high again. Not just the boot. Simon Webster could make inroads into the Italian defence with his speed. Our prediction - Italy to win by 11 points.
